On 3 March, in a by-election in Barnsley Central, the Labour Party successfully retained the seat vacated by Eric Illsley. Gaining a 11,771 vote majority from a 60.8% share of the vote, newly-elected MP Dan Jarvis managed to increase Labour’s lead by 678. With the interesting stories lurking below the obvious headline, what does the result in Yorkshire really say about the health of British party politics?
Turnout in Barnsley, at 36.5%, was markedly down on the 2010 participation rate of 56.45%. However, this should come as no real surprise: turnout in by-elections is traditionally lower than on general election day. Moreover, that Barnsley Central was considered to be a “safe” Labour seat potentially deterred some voters, as well as being a factor in discouraging much campaigning (this may, in turn, be an argument in support of the necessity of the redrawing of constituency boundaries, announced today). Nonetheless, that 63.5% of eligible voters preferred to stay away from the polls at a time when partisan tensions are relatively high, and political issues such as budget cuts and changes to education and health policies are constantly in the media spotlight, is alarming. While the nature of the by-election – triggered by the parliamentary expenses scandal that saw Eric Illsley required to vacate his seat – may account for some level of discontent and, indeed, could reasonably have elicited a measure of dissociation from politics itself, such apathy is detrimental to democratic legitimacy.
Possibly the most fascinating reading of the by-election results concerns the governing coalition: the Conservatives were pushed into third by UKIP; the Lib Dems, who polled second in 2010, finished sixth behind an independent candidate and the BNP, achieving just 4.18% of the vote – thereby failing to even reclaim their £500 deposit. This, said Simon Hughes, deputy leader of the Lib Dems, was ‘clearly not a success’, while Tim Farron, party president of the Lib Dems, suggested that the coalition parties had been ‘concertinaed’. However, should the outcome be interpreted as the statement of despondence aimed at the government that many are claiming? While Jarvis proclaimed the people of Barnsley to have sent ‘the strongest possible message’ to Cameron and Clegg in protest at ‘broken promises’ and ‘unfair cuts’, Clegg was correct to assert that a single result (particularly one already unmistakably situated in Labour territory) cannot be taken as an accurate gauge of wider popular opinion. However, with the Conservative vote also falling by more than half to 8.25%, UKIP seemingly experienced the greatest success in picking up the pieces, obtaining 12.19%. While this is doubtlessly attributable to the protest vote – a phenomenon that often rears it’s head in such by-elections – rather than true UKIP gains, the potential for the Conservative Party to be experiencing not only a reduced ability to attract the centre-left vote but also a reduced capacity to motivate the centre-right, should not be underestimated. With potential cracks appearing in the governing coalition around such issues as as the impending AV referendum and recent multiculturalism speeches, adroitness in assimilating disenchanted voters could prove decisive.
Possibly the most fascinating reading of the by-election results concerns the governing coalition: the Conservatives were pushed into third by UKIP; the Lib Dems, who polled second in 2010, finished sixth behind an independent candidate and the BNP, achieving just 4.18% of the vote – thereby failing to even reclaim their £500 deposit. This, said Simon Hughes, deputy leader of the Lib Dems, was ‘clearly not a success’, while Tim Farron, party president of the Lib Dems, suggested that the coalition parties had been ‘concertinaed’. However, should the outcome be interpreted as the statement of despondence aimed at the government that many are claiming? While Jarvis proclaimed the people of Barnsley to have sent ‘the strongest possible message’ to Cameron and Clegg in protest at ‘broken promises’ and ‘unfair cuts’, Clegg was correct to assert that a single result (particularly one already unmistakably situated in Labour territory) cannot be taken as an accurate gauge of wider popular opinion. However, with the Conservative vote also falling by more than half to 8.25%, UKIP seemingly experienced the greatest success in picking up the pieces, obtaining 12.19%. While this is doubtlessly attributable to the protest vote – a phenomenon that often rears it’s head in such by-elections – rather than true UKIP gains, the potential for the Conservative Party to be experiencing not only a reduced ability to attract the centre-left vote but also a reduced capacity to motivate the centre-right, should not be underestimated. With potential cracks appearing in the governing coalition around such issues as as the impending AV referendum and recent multiculturalism speeches, adroitness in assimilating disenchanted voters could prove decisive.
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